CALCULATED RISKS GERD GIGERENZER PDF

Find out more about Calculated Risks by Gerd Gigerenzer at Simon & Schuster. Read book reviews & excerpts, watch author videos & more. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. 1 Jan Gerd Gigerenzer, Simon and Schuster, New York, pp., ISBN (the book examines several) requires people to calculate the risk that is.

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But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling gigreenzer of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. This is an important topic for everyone.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Often, the figure they quote represents the likelihood that, out of 1 million people, 1 person will be a match. Following the perhaps present standard of care, however, he doctor insisted she be monitored more closely, with more frequent mammography and another biopsy at a future time. Beware of various shenanigans in the marketing of such tests, like references to the generally higher relative risk reduction when trying to sell a test to the public.

Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Her doctor scheduled a biopsy, which revealed normal tissue. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1, women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1, women who do, 3 will die. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which hu Human minds are not adapted to probability Mar 01, Ken rated it liked it.

This example, using numbers from Gigerenzer, might look confusing, but read through it because its complexity is central to understanding the his thesis. In this book, professor Gigerenzer says risk innumeracy stems more from representation of risks rather than from one’s IQ. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Return to Book Page.

If people instead get the same question with the background information in the form of frequencies instead of probabilities they do much better.? It could also correctly indicate true cancer, in which case the woman goes away sad and must consider treatment.

It also paradoxically but very enlightening teaches you techniques to apply bayesian thinking by re-stating probability problems using frequencies. It suggests that instead of using percentages when talking about probabilities we should be using natural frequencies which are easier for us to understand and remember and also which usually represent the truth instead of leading the reader of those statistics astray by accident or by intentional deception.

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Simon and Schuster- Education – pages. Presenting students calchlated real-world court cases that have been overturned due to the defendant’s attorney clearing up statistical misunderstandings by simply using natural frequencies like 4 in 1, rather than probabilities, like 0.

The book contains some useful information, but it is highly repetitious. Landslide of numbers smother our eyes and ears. Deciding whether to have a mammogram or other medical screening the book examines several requires people to calculate the risk that is inherent is taking these tests.? Certainly not the first book addressing the problem of statistical innumeracy among the public, but I think this book’s message has been somewhat drown calculafed by less serious and more recent releases from authors who’ve had the fortune of becoming more popular.

In order to assess risk — everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests — we need a basic understanding of statistics.

This is an extreme case, though! But also scary and far more likely is that the test could indicate that cancer is present when it is not.? Notify me of rusks posts by email.

Other math books reference this book. The majority of the book is not about probability theory, but on its social impact, especially in medical examinations and legal cases.

The delivery is likely to stick with readers better, giving them a greater chance of berd using the knowledge for critical evaluation of future situations. In short, here’s a maxim to protect us from this kind of dangerous, shoddy thinking and manipulation: It suggests that instead of using percentages when talking about probabilities we should be using natural frequencies which are easier for us to understand and remember and also whi One of those books that makes you wish you would have paid more attention at school math classes.

Thanks for telling us about the problem. There is calculatted evidence that the radiation from the mammogram increases the risk of true breast cancer! Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches.

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What risk, you might ask, is there for an asymptommatic woman in having a mammogram? The two conditional factors are placed the other way around.

For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. Jul 29, Nayef Ahmad rated it it was amazing.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer

This is particularly problematic when it comes to medical problems, which this book mostly concentrates on; mammography and HIV tests are taken as examples, and the author’s demonstration of yigerenzer misinterpreted these calculatsd are by doctors and the general public came as a great shock to me.

A false positive is a test result that says, ‘yes, the person has the virus,’ when actually the person doesn’t. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution. But this book, this book does a magic. May 30, Irio rated it really liked it.

Jul 19, Jim Razinha rated it it was ok. He goes on to say it’s nat It’s a mesmerizing statistics book. Because they’re bad at math and generally dishonest, lawyers will argue that the probability of innocence is equal to a chance match, which is usually abysmally low and therefore argues for guilt.

People have had breasts vigerenzer on the basis of faulty screening that they were enticed into receiving given the impressively high but mostly irrelevant measure of relative, versus absolute, risk reduction. Gigerenzer stresses gigegenzer students riskss a high motivation to learn statistics but that it is typically poorly taught.?

This is an insightful and easy read without any maths required. I was surprised to find myself enjoying reading a book rsiks statistics. Gigerenzer has shown here, and in other research, that this tool is unnatural and difficult to use and that people consistently poorly estimate the answer. We hear LOTS of statistics in the media when reporting news on our health, politics, environment, etc.

The text is somewhat lengthy and repetitive, but accessible for a wide range of audience, especially non-technical readers.